Keys to the Game: Hawks vs. Bears

Sunday, Seahawks, Soldier Field…Super Bowl?

Yes, the Seahawks are two wins away from The Big Game (sorry Cal and Stanford, the Super Bowl is way bigger than your Bay Area football rivalry). Sure, it’s going to take some historic efforts for the Hawks to continue this improbable run, but weirder things have happened.

Did you know that the last five teams to make the playoffs with a regular season record of .500 or worse are 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs? After all the talk of the Seahawks not deserving a home playoff game, they just happened to be the only team to win at home on Wild-card Weekend. In fact, the last time three home-teams lost on the Wild-card Weekend was 2005…when…the Hawks made the Super Bowl.

It’s not a far-fetched idea to think the Seahawks can knock off the Bears, come home to beat the Packers in the NFC Championship and then travel to Dallas. Of course we’d need a little luck and A LOT of hard work, but this team is hitting its stride at the perfect time.

Hey, it could happen...

Key Match-up: O-line vs. D-line

Mark my words; the big boys up front are going to determine the outcome of this game. We can’t dwell on the first match-up between these two teams because it was week 6. The Hawks were coming off a bye, Lance Briggs didn’t play and the Bears were still trying to figure out how to fix a porous O-line. That being said, the first match-up did show us one thing: Russell Okung can hold his own against Julius Peppers.

One of the most feared pass rushers in the NFL, Peppers was held sackless as Okung, in the first complete game of his young NFL career, played out of his mind. Not only did the Seahawks O-line adequately protect Matthew, on the defensive side the Hawks sacked Cutler six times. That’s reminiscent of the year we led the NFL in sacks. What year was that…oh yea 2005.

If the Seahawks hope to win this game, they NEED to win the battle of the trenches. Last week against the Saints, the Hawks allowed New Orleans to drive inside the Red Zone seven times. Yet, each time the Saints were at or inside the 5-yard line Seattle held them to field goals. Offensively, the Seahawks allowed only a single sack, and when it mattered the most (third downs) our healthy O-line provided Matthew with enough time to find open receivers and convert.

Obvious Match-up: Third-down conversions

It’s widely noted that during the Seahawks nine regular season losses, opponents converted third downs 51 percent of the time. During victories, conversions were down around 33 percent. During the first half last week the Saints converted 4-of-7 third downs … 57 percent. In the second half (including the fourth down fail) they converted only 2-of-7 attempts … 28 percent. Clearly third-down conversions are pivotal to the Seahawks chances to win games.

Three-and-outs don’t just hinder offensive momentum, but in this matchup they will provide an opportunity for each team to get the ball into the hands of their electrifying players. When the Hawks force a punt, Neon Leon has an opportunity to take another kick to the house. But when the Bears force a punt, Devin ‘100 speed in Madden’ Hester is waiting 40 yards downfield ready to add to his NFL record for return TDs.

In the first matchup, the Hawks somehow prevented the Bears from converting a single first down … they were 0-for-12. I guarantee this won’t happen a second time. Nevertheless, Cutler has shown a propensity to melt down under pressure faster than Frosty the Snowman in 100 degree weather. The Seahawks need to capitalize on Cutler’s inexperience and bring the heat.

Often Under Rated Match-up: Special Teams

As much as I’ve read about the Seahawks chances to win this week, I can’t remember reading much about Special Teams being a significant factor in the outcome of this game. Last week, the Saints chose to pooch kick it to avoid putting the ball in Neon Leon’s hands. The result, nearly every first-half possession for the Hawks started at or near their own 40-yard line. When the Saints finally did kick it deep, Leon rarely made it past the 30.

As we’ve seen all year, the Seahawks have an electric return game which has helped them win at least two games, against San Diego and Carolina. However, with Devin Hester, the Bears have the most feared return man in NFL History. Last week, Seattle routinely kicked the ball to the right corner.

True, the first kickoff of the game went out of bounds, but following that mistake, Olindo Mare did a magnificent job putting the ball outside the numbers, near the goal-line. The result: the Seahawks kickoff unit rarely allowed the Saints to reach the 25-yard line, making it increasingly difficult to move the ball down field to get into scoring range.

Pete Carroll has publicly stated he plans to kick the ball to Devin Hester. This could be the deciding factor in a game with potential to come down to the wire. If the Hawks really do plan on kicking it to Hester, every man on the special teams unit need to stay in their lanes and not try to be a hero. When Hester returned a punt for a TD that almost cost the Hawks that week 6 victory, every Seahawk was in his proper lane, except for one. Where did Hester run? Right through the hole that should have been filled. Discipline is key to a successful Special Teams. The Hawks need to stay disciplined.

Prediction

Hawks shock the world … again. 31-26 victory!